The Reds' cornerstone veteran is back in the swing of things. But there is just one problem...
Joey Votto is swinging a hot stick after a delayed start to the 2023 season. However, his success raises a looming question.
He's Back!
Joey Votto's rotator cuff and bicep surgery must have been successful, because he has sure been flexing. He is only batting .216 in 116 at-bats, but has 11 homers and is slugging .534, turning in a .855 OPS. He has already matched his 2022 home run total, which took him 322 ABs. For those scoring at home, that is way more than double the at-bats.
He appears to be in remarkable shape in his age 39 season (turns 40 in September), picking up where left off from his most recent healthy season. That was the 2021 campaign in which he hit 36 bombs with 100 RBI. Most importantly, the team also happens to be 22-16 since his return. So much for the haters saying he would “mess up the culture!”
Really, people? Anyone who was saying this must not have been following Votto’s career very for the last 16 years. Say what you will about Joey, but has always put the team, organization, city, and fans before himself. His comments regarding his return highlighted this perfectly.
How many times have we seen Elly De La Cruz picking Votto’s brain? I can’t put into words how valuable that is to a budding star. Just as Votto had Hall of Famer Scott Rolen as a mentor early in his career, he is now serving in the same capacity to today’s young players. Players have been vocal about Votto’s guidance, and it is apparent if you pay attention to the dugout during games.
What’s the problem then?
This all sounds great, and it is: but if Votto is performing and the team is playing well, what problem am I referring to in the title? Some might say the problem with Votto is that he is blocking prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand, affectionately known as CES, from playing time. They do happen to play the same primary position, and Encarnacion-Strand indeed made a mockery of AAA pitching (.331 AVG, 20 HR, 1.042 OPS).
However, I do not believe that Votto’s presence immediately excludes CES. Since his call up on July 17th, they have shared the lineup 12 times out of 16 games, and Encarnacion-Strand has appeared in 14 of those games. With the DH spot and Strand's ability to play a few positions, there is enough playing time to go around.
What’s REALLY the problem then??
Again, what problem could the Reds possibly have with their cornerstone Votto? You've gotta follow the money. After all, the team’s finances have been a major pain point for fans in the recent past. Remember “Sell the team, Bob” ????
Votto is in the final guaranteed year of his 10-year contract extension that he signed in 2012, covering his 2014-2023 seasons. The extension was added on top of his 3-year deal that he was already 1 season into. Votto is making $25 million this year, wrapping up his total guaranteed earnings of $225 million. Again, Votto is in his age 39 season, turning 40 in September.
This is where the problem comes in. Notice above I said this is the final guaranteed year of his contract. Tacked on the end of Votto’s deal is a $20 million team option for his age 40, 2024 season. This option includes a buyout of $7 million if the Reds decline the option.
This means the Reds can pick up the option and continue the contract for $20M or essentially pay him $7M and move on. There has been some speculation that Votto may retire after this season due to his expiring contract, but based on his level of performance and recent comments, there is no clear indication that that is the case.
The Cincinnati front office has been salivating over the 2024 season for some time, as there are no guaranteed contacts on the books (Hunter Greene’s recent extension as the only exception, coming in at a mere $3 million in 2024).
There will be other pay raises through service time and arbitration cases, but the Reds have basically no owed money next season aside from Greene's low salary and a few other small buyouts from previous contracts.
The lack of guaranteed contracts comes at a perfect time for the Reds to add salary in the form of a top starting pitcher or a corner outfielder to compliment their overachieving group of rookies. The Reds were quiet at the trade deadline, which (hopefully) means they are more willing to spend on free agents instead of moving prospect capital through trades.
That being said, if the Reds are secretly hoping for Votto to ride off into the retirement horizon with his buyout instead of taking up more salary and roster space, they may have a tough call to make.
If Votto continues to perform and does not want to retire, and the team does not pick up his contract option, the front office runs the risk of losing the goodwill that has been restored with fans so far this season. While the team is performing well, the ownership and general management are still on thin ice with many across Reds Country. There would be an uproar! Especially if Votto went on to sign with another team.
This all largely hinges on Votto’s performance. He has been vocal in the past about wanting to achieve longevity in the game, while also suggesting that he will not continue to push it if he’s not getting it done on the field.
If Votto decides to continue playing, a possible outcome is that the Reds could decline the club option on the original contract and come to an agreement with free agent Votto on a new deal, perhaps a one-year pact for a lower salary than the $20M option would provide.
It would be nice for Votto to receive the recognition and fanfare he deserves with a proper sendoff from the league in a planned retirement year as opposed to quietly hanging it up due to contract timing. Since Votto has expressed his interest to remain a Red for his entire career, he could be motivated to accept a team-friendly deal that would leave the proverbial ball in the court of Nick Krall and Bob Castellini. Votto is obviously a franchise player as one of the greatest Reds of all time. If they do not act carefully, the Reds management could quickly polarize fans once again.
The only way that this story might have a happy ending with Votto on the field for a different team in 2024 is if he signs with his hometown Toronto Blue Jays. This does not seem likely, but they do have Brandon Belt currently signed to a 1-year, $9.3M deal that Votto could easily replace. This would give the Reds front office a free pass for letting Votto walk away without making them look too bad.... Either way, as is usually the case with Joey, it’s going to be interesting!
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