Reds Trade Deadline Analysis

The Reds made three trades at the deadline. Will it be enough?

Reds GM Nick Krall bringing in Terry Francona was one of his best moves. But, he needs players!

Another trade deadline has come and gone, and the Reds made three deals to improve the team heading into the final months of the season. First off, allow us to say we are glad the Reds did something. Doing nothing would have been unacceptable. Being three games out of a Wild Card spot, why not go for it? Sadly, the Reds have rarely shown a willingness to commit to winning. 

When the Reds started to struggle back in 2014, nobody expected them to be so bad for so long. In the years since, we have heard the following excuses for doing nothing/losing:

• We Are “Retooling,” Not “Rebuilding”

• Positive Momentum

• Align Payroll to Resources

• Players Returning from Injuries Are Better Than Trades

• Eliminate Peaks and Valleys

And when fans finally began to widely criticize the big wigs in the organization back in 2022, we got hit with the tone deaf:

• Where Ya Gonna Go? 

Fans have endured a lot of losing, and you’d think the ownership and front office would be tired of it too. Back in 2020, President of Baseball Operations Dick Williams quit when he realized fans actually had expectations. This came after the Reds most recent “playoff appearance,” where the Reds barely snuck into the expanded format with a 31-29 record and failed to score a single run. Some on social media called it a failure. Williams resigned. The playoffs have not been sniffed since.

Fans are tired of waiting for “next year” or “the future.” I say all of this to say we were promised winning baseball back in 2006. The infamous “Castellini Welcome Letter,” full of lofty, unfulfilled promises, occasionally makes its rounds on social media. There have been 6 winning seasons since the ownership took over. So, what did the Reds do to improve the 2025 team?

Reds traded minor league RHP to the Athletics for LF Miguel Andujar.

Miguel Andujar was once a heralded third base prospect with the New York Yankees. Since then, he has moved on to playing outfield for the Athletics. He has quietly had a nice season, hitting .298, which is higher than anyone on the Reds’ roster. He only has 6 home runs, and two of those game in the same game the day before the trade became final. However, the pop is real, as he hit 27 home runs back in 2018, when he finished 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting. His career has been a whirlwind since then, as Andujar has not played in more than 75 games since 2018. So, why do the Reds want him? 

On his career, Andujar is a .291/.330/.464 hitter against lefties. As a team, the Reds are hitting .218/.297/.344 against southpaws - so Andujar should provide a marked improvement. Lux, Fraley, and Benson all struggle mightily against lefties - so Andujar is a welcome addition. He will not provide a whole lot on defense, but that should not matter much. Gavin Lux is a horrible outfielder who has started in left field more than any Red, and Andujar will not be any worse than him. We hope Andujar is not next in a line of duds who supposedly “mash lefties” (Ervin, Fairchild, Joe, etc.). Perhaps the best thing about Andujar’s acquisition is that Connor Joe will have played his last game for the Reds. 

On that note, Miguel Andujar will be the 100th - yes, you read that correctly - Red to play in left field since the trade of Adam Dunn back in 2008. He should win a prize. 

Reds traded minor league LHP Adam Serwinowski to the Dodgers and minor league RHP Brian Van Belle to the Rays for RHP Zack Littell.

The Reds faced Littell on Friday, June 25th. He would make one more start before being traded to Cincinnati. This is not a blow-you-away kind of trade. What the Reds have with Littell is a solid piece to anchor in the rotation. Overall, he has pitched to a 3.58 ERA with 89 strikeouts over 22 starts. He is 4th in the Major Leagues with 133.1 innings pitched, and his 21 walks are the 4th fewest of all qualified pitchers. These are some really impressive stats, and any contending team should want a pitcher of this caliber. If someone wanted to poke holes in Littell’s game, they might point out he gives up some long balls. However, he has pitched in a minor league park all season,  and when you have a strike thrower, there will be some home runs. You can live with this if you limit walks and limit damage, and Littell does. 

This move provides great insurance if Hunter Greene never returns from his mystery groin problem or if another pitcher suffers an injury. Contending teams truly can never have enough starting pitching depth, especially with young pitchers such as Burns who will assuredly face an innings limit. Littell will be slotted in the rotation, and Nick Martinez will slide to the bullpen. When asked about this, Martinez said “...no problem. It’s what I do. My priority is just winning ball games… If you’re playing poker, every team is trying to put out the best hand. I’m like the wild card.” What a guy.

Reds traded LHP Taylor Rogers and minor league SS Sammy Stafura to the Pirates for 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes.

This trade was a head scratcher when it was first announced. It seemed that the most glaring need for this Reds team was offense. According to Lance McAlister, the Reds have scored 0, 1, or 2 runs in about 33% of their games. So, it does not really compute to add a player who is hitting .236/.279/.290 with only 2 home runs. These are like Santiago Espinal numbers, who has started the most games for the Reds at 3B. It is true that Hayes has been a below-average bat for most of his career. He had a stronger season in 2023, but since then, it's been rough going. 

On the bright side, Hayes is widely recognized as the best defensive third baseman in baseball, and one of the best defenders overall. We are not the biggest fans of defensive metrics, but his 16 Defensive Runs Saved is tied for 3rd best in MLB, and is far and away the best rating for any third baseman. He was awarded a Gold Glove back in 2023, and he will presumably hold down the hot corner for the foreseeable future. With this change, the increasingly-hot Noelvi Marte will move to Right Field. Marte’s infield defense left a lot to be desired, and his two mistakes the day before the trade remained fresh in the minds of many. Hayes, as you might know it, did make a rare error in his first game as a Red. He followed this up with a home run, only his third of the year. He may struggle at times with the bat, but Ke’Bryan is still young, and at least we know he can field. We began the year with Jeimer Candelario, who could not hit OR field worth a hoot. At least it’s an improvement from him.

Overall, we would have liked to see the Reds do more. It would have been nice to see the addition of a real bat - a home run threat against righties and lefties, and someone who can hit in the order behind Elly every day. We did not really get that. We got a light-hitting starting third baseman, a number 3 type starting pitcher, and a decent platoon bat/DH option against lefties. The team is better than it was. As was stated by General Manager Nick Krall, they tried to address pitching, defense, and hitting with their deadline deals. We still do not feel a great deal of optimism that this is a World Series team. There needs to be more investment from ownership and they need more real, proven players. Of course, anything can happen, but this front office has given the fans no reason to believe in them. What do you think of the team going forward?