A career of steady performance and leading by example.
On January 24, 2023, it was announced that the Baseball Writers Association of America elected Scott Rolen to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Rolen found pay dirt in his 6th year of eligibility, seeing a historic rise in support from his first year. In fact, Rolen received only 10.2% of the vote in his first year of eligibility, not far removed from the 5% necessary to simply remain on the ballot. Elected with 76.3% of the vote, this marks the single largest increase of any candidate in the history of Hall of Fame voting who eventually earned induction. So, why the delay? He either is a Hall of Famer or he isn’t, right? He is.
The lack of original support was due in part to what could be called a “crowded ballot.” In the five previous years Rolen has appeared on the ballot, the Hall has seen the likes of Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez, Lee Smith, and Mike Mussina gain induction, who sat on the ballot for years. Also, controversial figures in the form of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling took up spaces that received plenty of votes each year. When the dust settled, many voters - who are limited to selecting only ten players each year - did not have room for Scott Rolen on their ballot. As years went by and names were removed by either induction or expiration, it became clearer that Rolen had a strong case. Also, as was discussed in a previous Twin Killing post, everyone has a different idea of what constitutes a Hall of Fame baseball player. We are allowed to change our minds, and so are the voters. In this case, they got it right.
I have a significant bias in this case, as Rolen was among my favorite players growing up. I wore #27 for him as a kid, so you can imagine my 13-year-old excitement when my Cincinnati Reds traded for him in the summer of 2009. In my mind, I was watching one of the all-time greats - and now he was playing on MY team. This affinity was affirmed when my brothers and I stumbled into his autograph line at Redsfest in 2009. The man was a powerful presence, but courteous and humble at the same time. I was also in awe as I sat in the 500 level of Great American Ball Park in 2010 and watched him manhandle Chris Carpenter and other Cardinals as the Reds squared off with Rolen’s former team in the infamous Molina-Phillips melee.
However, I will be one of the first to admit that Rolen’s statistics don’t necessarily jump off the page at you. Incredibly solid, but not enough to move the needle for the “small hall” people, those who think the Hall of Fame is reserved for the likes of Willie Mays and Ted Williams. Why, then, did the writers elect him to prestigious status? The truth is, Rolen is one of the all-time greatest at his position, especially defensively. He is assisted by the recent meteoric rise of advanced metrics, which lends volume to relatively unmeasured statistics such as defense and baserunning. Let’s look at some of the numbers.
The Offense
Overall, Rolen produced a career slash line of .281/.364./.490 (AVG/OBP/SLG). Anyone can look up his Baseball Reference page, so I won’t hammer my dear reader with stats. However, with a player like Rolen, the counting stats require some further explanation in my opinion. For example, his .490 slugging percentage is well above the .427 MLB average during his Major League career. One of the major knocks on Rolen is his penchant for missing time due to injury. In my somewhat meaningless opinion, this makes his numbers even more impressive. In total, Rolen produced 2,077 hits, 316 home runs, and 1287 RBI. These numbers might not blow you away, but they still qualify him as one of the top offensive third basemen to play the game despite missing his fair share of time. Per every 162 games (a full season), Rolen produced 165 hits, 41 doubles, 25 home runs, and 102 RBI. Anyone would take this kind of season, especially over the course of a 17-year career.
If you are a fan of more advanced metrics such as OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage), Rolen’s mark of .855 ranks him higher than multiple third basemen already in the Hall of Fame, including Paul Molitor and Ron Santo. Like many great players, the twilight years of Rolen’s career saw a decline in production. Yet, his peak performance is perfectly in line with what one would expect from a Hall of Fame player. From Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com): “Rolen produced 46.2 WAR from 1997-2004, averaging 5.8 WAR per season. Only two position players had more in that span: Bonds and A-Rod. To put it another way, Rolen had an eight-year run in which he was MLB’s leader in WAR among position players not linked to PEDs.”
The Defense
The above-average offensive numbers listed above are less than half of what makes Scott Rolen a Hall of Famer. Only three heroes of the hot corner have amassed more Gold Glove Awards than Rolen’s eight: Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, and Nolan Arenado. Baseball Reference lists his dWAR, or defensive wins above replacement, as the 6th highest all-time among third baseman. Don’t like newfangled acronym stats? That’s fine - maybe you will trust the opinion of baseball lifer Dusty Baker: “He has one of the truest throws to first I've seen.” It was truly a bullet to the chest every time - and boy - what a master of the good ol’ charging in barehand play. Overall, his 70.1 WAR ranks him as the 10th-best third baseman of all time. This is certainly backed up by traditional stats and the nine players that come before him on this list. Does someone who is a top-ten player at their position deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? This humble writer thinks so.
The Intangibles
His body of work, along with other intangibles, make Scott Rolen a Hall of Fame third baseman. Speaking of intangibles, in his superb 2015 work titled Intangiball, Lonnie Wheeler attempts to do the impossible in baseball: quantify the unquantifiable. By assigning value to characteristics such as professionalism, grit, and character, Wheeler offers explanations for various baseball scenarios. Why do the same guys often end up on playoff rosters? Does leadership impact performance and help win games? Can clubhouse chemistry make an actual difference?
Intangiball sings the praises of Scott Rolen, offering anecdotes from the likes of Jonny Gomes and Brandon Phillips who speak to his impact on the 2010-2012 Cincinnati Reds playoff teams. To quote Wheeler (p. 75): “Although the Reds won at a dramatically higher rate when Rolen was in the lineup, he appeared to do nothing heroic or unusually grand; he was just there, practicing properly, running alertly, setting an undeclared, unmistakable, physically imposing example.” This was echoed recently in Joey Votto’s congratulatory message to Rolen, speaking about his impact as a teammate. These intangibles were the things I noticed and was impressed by even as a young baseball fan. In my mind, Rolen was the ultimate role model for how the game should be played. Even today as a junior high/high school baseball coach, I show my players a printed picture of Rolen fielding a ground ball to teach the proper form.
Rolen and Corky Miller, another player mentioned frequently in Intangiball. Was I really going to miss a chance to include this legendary picture?
If you do not think Scott Rolen deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, that is acceptable. You just didn’t watch him in the same manner I did. You weren’t going to find the 40 homerun seasons or MVP awards. You would find elite baserunning acumen, causing an entire Major League team to study and embrace the art of going first to third. You would find a knack for hitting behind runners to advance them, or a fly ball approach with a runner on third and less than two out. You would find above-average offense and FAR above-average defense, and a seriously steady competitor expertly manning the #5 position. Is he Babe Ruth? No, but he did not have to be. He is Scott Rolen, and he deserves our congratulations. To conclude, a quote from the great Tony La Russa: “The way he plays that position, the way he runs the bases, the way he takes his at-bats, he is a complete player.” Indeed, TLR.
So, yes, you might disagree. Heck, you might even be one of the people who slaps a “laugh react” on all the Facebook posts mentioning Rolen’s recent election. If you are - I ask one simple question: are you one of the ten best to EVER do something? If so, congratulations to you, too!
Shoutout to the Crime Dog
I would be remiss if I did not shout out Fred McGriff when mentioning the Class of 2023. Amazingly, the Crime Dog’s best performance in Hall of Fame voting came in his final year, where he only garnered 39.8% of the vote. Alas, his candidacy fell to the Veterans Committee, which found his resume more than satisfactory. At one point in time prior to the steroid era, 500 home runs was a benchmark guarantee to reach the Hall of Fame. McGriff finished with a robust 493 dingers. Would he have secured traditional election with 7 more bombs? We will never know. Regardless, McGriff’s .284/.377/.509 slash line, 1,550 RBI, 2,490 hits, and 1,349 runs scored over 19 seasons were enough to cement his place in baseball history. His resume also includes 5 all-star appearances, 8 top-10 MVP voting finishes, and a 1995 World Series Championship. His service at a non-premium defensive position raises the bar of admission, but this was met according to the Veterans Committee. A huge, overdue congratulations to Fred McGriff.
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