The Castellini regime, why the Reds “trade everyone,” and how the rebuild might be different this time.
My fellow Cincinnati Reds baseball fans: that is - if you still label yourself that way. Hopefully, you can still find some things to get excited about when the team is mentioned. Maybe you are still following along out of habit but need the franchise to win back your support. Maybe the team is like a car wreck on the side of the road that you cannot help but pay at least some attention to. Or, perhaps you simply do not have anywhere else to go.
Ah yes, where was I? My fellow Cincinnati Reds baseball fans: I am afraid to report that the state of the union is regrettably poor. Be assured – there are things to be excited about. However, it is important to be aware of just how rough the last 30 years have been for baseball’s oldest team before we start looking forward to better times.
Just how bad is it?
Let's take a look into the past before we look forward. The last time the Reds won the World Series was in 1990. 32 seasons have been played since they won it all. They have not even appeared in the Fall Classic since then. In 1995, they beat the Dodgers in the NLDS, but have not been able to fight for the National League pennant since that wire-to-wire season in 1990. That means 27 years since winning a playoff series. 21 out of 32 seasons since 1990 have been losing seasons. 12 of those 21 losing seasons have come under Bob Castellini’s ownership that started before the 2006 season.
While there are teams with longer World Series and playoff droughts than Cincinnati (10 of them) – that doesn’t mean we should excuse the lack of competitive baseball. It is the opposite of what we were promised by ownership in a 2006 open letter. It takes time to build a winning team. It took 5 seasons to achieve a playoff appearance for the new ownership regime, only to be no-hit in Game 1 by the Phillies’ Roy Halladay and subsequently swept in the NLDS.
Make no mistake – the 2010 Reds were a joy to watch in the regular season. Young Votto. Electric Chapman. Flashy Phillips. Ace Cueto. Hall of Famer Rolen. Powerful Bruce. Consistent Arroyo. Fiery Gomes. However, there have only been 3 playoff berths since then (2 of them measly wildcard appearances), all of which resulted in losses just as embarrassing as 2010:
2012: Loss of 3 straight games to San Francisco in NLDS after taking a 2-game lead
2013: Cueto infamously “drops the ball” against Pittsburgh in a 1-game wildcard playoff
2020: Cincinnati fails to score a run against Atlanta in a 3-game wildcard series after squeaking into the expanded playoff field during the shortened Covid season
That’s all we get. The Castellinis have given fans a winning percentage of 47% in 17 years. 1,255 wins and 1,397 losses. So much for that dedication to “foster a winning attitude and culture.” Ownership has been widely criticized for being more worried about making money than winning, negatively influencing the operations of General Management. If you even come close to following Reds baseball, you have undoubtedly heard “sell the team, Bob” in some variation. Fans are only holding the leaders of their favorite team accountable. The team is mocked for the seemingly constant state of rebuilding, which blatantly contrasts the very words of ownership.
Do the Reds really trade everyone?
This is where it gets a little tricky. Many fans will tell you that the Reds “trade everyone.” However, it is not that simple. The more accurate criticism would be the lack of commitment to either “rebuild” or “go for it.” You can’t have it both ways. Obviously, a team can’t come out and tell fans that it does not plan on being competitive. But baseball is cyclical, and the best teams take control of that cycle.
Selling players smartly when the team begins to falter, buying the right players when the team shows signs of success, and drafting well every year. To be fair, the owners can’t be pinned with all the blame. Despite heavy influence or restriction from ownership, the General Manager oversees trades and drafting. However, if we are holding the Castellinis accountable to their promises and considering them responsible for the performance of the team, controlling the competitive window has been perhaps their biggest failure.
Some partially blame the 2015 All-Star festivities that were hosted in Cincinnati for the 4 straight 94+ loss seasons between 2015 and 2018 – essentially claiming that ownership wanted to retain “star” players to boost the buzz around the city for the game. Whether this motivated the front office’s operations or not, it was an impossibly tough time for fans. During those 4 losing seasons, the following transactions occurred:
Whether or not you agreed with the contents or timing of these deals when they occurred, they helped to set the team back for several years, bringing in no impact players. Moving on from these players was not wrong, but the timing and returns should be scrutinized. If moves were made sooner, would winning baseball have come back sooner? It is worth noting that Bob Castellini has been cited as reluctant to move certain players at times during his tenure, adding to the responsibility he holds for this disastrous stretch in Reds history. Thankfully, some of the draft picks from these lousy seasons are at least starting to pay off in the likes of Tyler Stephenson and Jonathan India.
To be fair, after the 2018 season, the Reds did make some moves, ill-fated as they may have been. Homer Bailey's contract was unloaded for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Kyle Farmer, and Alex Wood. However, Cincinnati had to package some top prospects to get the deal done. Also, none of the players received are with the Reds anymore or made an impact in the 2020 "playoff" appearance. Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas were signed before the 2019 campaign, but Castellanos' contract had to be structured with many opt-outs to get him to sign, and Moustakas disappointed mightily. Castellanos has since opted out and signed elsewhere (criticizing ownership along the way) and Moustakas was released despite being owed millions. In a familiar fashion, the front office could not get the timing right as far as when to make moves and what level of Major League readiness to give away / receive.
At least we have our dignity, right?
Despite some tough years between the full winning seasons of 2013 and 2021 (not counting the 31-29 Covid-shortened season of 2020), fans were remarkably patient. The Reds retained respect as a historic and successful franchise facing some subpar years. However, after a somewhat promising 3rd place finish in 2021, winning 83 games, the rebuild was back in full force. The justification given to fans was to “align payroll with …resources.”
Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhart, and Nick Castellanos were not retained. Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez were traded before the 2022 season. Fans and players alike became publicly critical of Reds ownership. In response to fan frustrations, Phil Castellini threw gas on the flames, bringing in a hefty heap of widespread media scrutiny and ridicule.
You would have thought that Phil would have been kept away from microphones after that, but struck again in January, allegedly lamenting the economic state of baseball and claiming that the Reds are managed like a nonprofit. The goal seemed to be to get fans to realize and agree that it is difficult to manage a “small market” baseball team – a laughable proposition for fans that expect a winning tradition. A franchise that was promised by ownership in 2006 to become “one of the most respected organizations in baseball” has become a laughingstock in many ways.
Are the Reds ever going to stop rebuilding?
The rebuild continued with full force during the 2022 season. Luis Castillo, Brandon Drury, Tyler Naquin, Tyler Mahle, and Tommy Pham were unloaded at the trade deadline. The Reds trade everyone, right? Well, hold the phone. While it is true that the Reds essentially cleaned house of any non-controllable player, these moves were all made at the same time and the right moment – unlike the 2015-2018 “rebuild.” These moves were made when the values for these players were high enough to get something meaningful in return, while also realizing that they would not be pieces of the next competitive Reds team. The sweet spot.
Maybe we can’t help but find some optimism as lifelong fans, but this feels more like a rebuild done right. It appears that the front office is finally admitting that things must get worse before they can be better – things were assuredly worse in 2022 and will be in 2023 as well. But the moves seem to have been made free of emotion, unlike years in the past. The front office knew it would receive countless protests with its deadline deals but made them anyway: tearing the whole thing down so that something better can be built in its place.
Help is on the way.
General Manager Nick Krall received a lot of praise around the league for the moves made in 2022. 8 of the Reds’ top 20 prospects came from 2022 trades, with 5 of them being in the top 10. Bolstering the farm system’s top level helped rank the Reds 4th out of the 30 teams in the most recent rankings by MLB Pipeline, which is music to the ears of any struggling club. That is a lot of progress from being 22nd in 2020.
Get used to hearing the names Elly De La Cruz (#1) and Noelvi Marte (#2), among many others. With the offensive foundation of Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson and a pitching foundation of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, things could get interesting very quickly if these prospects and young players develop as expected. Considering that likely retiring Joey Votto and released Mike Moustakas’ (another painful but positive, emotion-free move) contracts will be off the books following the 2023 season, the Reds will have almost no guaranteed money in 2024 and could be poised to finally open the coffers and spend to win.
Baseball organizations are complex. They must be analyzed from many perspectives. While the state of the Cincinnati Reds union is undoubtedly poor between the lines, and ownership struggles to relate and communicate with fans, a true rebuild seems to be underway, and we will always find a way to get excited about baseball in the Queen City.
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