After a busy offseason, who will make the final cut?
Reds baseball is back! Now that all players have arrived at camp and there are early reports on health, we are making our annual Opening Day Roster predictions. Many of the spots will be taken by returning players, but the flurry of offseason moves will create some tough competition to make the final 26. Who is in the mix?
The Predictions
Catcher (2)
Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino
The catching position is clear cut this season. Tyler Stephenson had a stellar year in 2024, slashing .258/.338/.444 with 19 HR and 66 RBI. Also, he showed in incredible improvement behind the plate, ranking as one of the most improved defensive players in all of baseball. He caught in more games than any catcher in the National League. Also, according to Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon, his 1,001 innings behind that plate was more than any Reds catcher since Joe Oliver in 1993. His role as the starter is secure.
Although he played extremely well, Stephenson was forced into some extra defensive innings due to the lack of a quality backup. In 2025, Tyler will likely see some starts as the designated hitter, as the acquisition of Gold-Glover Jose Trevino will give the Reds another solid catcher. This was a necessary move, and we are glad the Reds made it. Trevino is not expected to bring a whole lot with the bat, but there is nothing wrong with rostering a defense-first guy as a backup.
Infield (6)
Jeimer Candelario, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Santiago Espinal, Gavin Lux, Matt McLain
We have learned by now in making these predictions that it can be hard to determine how a roster will shake out. As soon as it looks like a position is settled, injuries, trades, or suspensions complicate matters. Last year, we were talking about Jonathan India serving in a utility role with Matt McLain as the everyday 2nd baseman. Instead, India retained his role, and McLain missed the entire season due to injury. Now, India is gone, and Matt McLain will return to his spot. Meanwhile, India has been playing left field and third base so far in camp for the Royals. We wish him all the best, but there will be a massive upgrade at the keystone with McLain.
On that note, we are glad Terry Francona shut down the outfield business for McLain. He belongs in the infield. However, that means the newly-acquired Gavin Lux will have to bounce around the diamond a bit. Lux became the odd man out with the Dodgers, but his left-handed bat is the real deal and will factor in nicely. He recently stated that he does not care where he plays as long as he gets to hit. Expect to see him at 3B, LF, DH, and filling in at 2B as needed.
Elly De La Cruz is one of the best players in the game, and the Reds are lucky to have him as their shortstop. Yes, he had some defensive miscues in 2024, but he is a young star with MVP potential. He is only going to improve, and we need to enjoy him while he is here. His ability is off the charts, and it should surprise no one if his name is in MVP consideration at the end of the season. On rare off days for Elly, McLain can play SS exceptionally well, and veteran backup Santiago Espinal can hold it down as well. Espinal, who was re-signed this offseason, will appear at SS, 2B, 3B, and perhaps corner outfield in emergency situations.
On the corners, we expect to see a lot of Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario. CES likely will see most of his time at 1B, but video from camp has shown him working out at 3B as well. The young slugger had a troubled 2024 with his wrist injury, which turned out to be worse than first anticipated. He has All Star upside, and we hope he can provide the thump that the Reds so desperately need. Candelario was not very impressive last year, but we hope he can bounce back. He also battled injury problems, and early reports from camp indicate he is in great shape. It seems he will be the primary third baseman on this team, as it is unlikely that Noelvi Marte will make the Opening Day roster after his horrendous 2024. Candelario will serve as the DH when not playing 3B or 1B, and a lot of this will depend on where Spencer Steer is playing.
Steer projects mainly as an outfielder on this team, but his lingering shoulder pain suggests he might need to see more time at 1B early in the season. In conclusion, there are lots of strong options for the infield, all of whom carry some versatility. We believe the team would be better off with McLain locked in at SS and Elly sliding over to 3B, but we are going to trust that Terry Francona knows far more than we do and will set everyone up for as much success as possible.
Outfield (5)
TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Stuart Fairchild, Austin Hays, Spencer Steer
Sadly, the Reds did not make a major splash in the free agent market for a power-hitting outfielder. Instead, they are opted to count on four returning players and bargain-bin free-agent signee Austin Hays. This is not a shot against Hays - we think he was a quality signing and has already impressed early in camp with a 2 HR day. He was an All Star just a couple seasons ago, and his health is back on track after a plagued 2024. He should have plenty of chances, mainly in LF and as DH. He is on a team-friendly deal, and he was an upgrade to Will Benson, who will now find himself competing with Stuart Fairchild and Cooper Bowman for the final outfield spot. We are admittedly not the biggest Fairchild fans in the world, as his mental miscues and inability to hit righties have been hard to watch. He would be just decent in a role as a defensive replacement, pinch runner, or pinch hitter against lefties. Cooper Bowman is a versatile speedster and our preferred option, but his chances of making it are slim.
Over the course of the season, Spencer Steer should see plenty of time in LF. He played well enough out there last season, and despite being the best defensive first baseman on the team, he will have to move around a bit. His shoulder recovery might force some decisions as to his position, but his bat will have him in the lineup nearly every day.
The remaining outfield slots will go to TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley. Friedl missed time with injury for much of 2024, but when he is healthy, he is a dynamic option both in the field and at the plate. There are not many players who can hit a home run and then turn around and get a bunt hit the next AB, but Friedl definitely can. He should be the starting center fielder and play most days, as he hits lefties better than he hits righties. Jake Fraley figures to be the primary right fielder, and he is primed to bounce back after health/personal concerns impacted him in 2024. We are rooting for him for sure.
Starting Rotation (5)
Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Brady Singer
Hunter Greene earned his first All Star appearance last season, and he will be the Opening Day starter assuming he is healthy. He had a breakout season, pitching to the tune of a 2.75 ERA with 169 Ks over 150+ innings. It appears that the ace everyone knew he could be has finally emerged. Nick Lodolo has battled health, but he is as talented as about any lefty in the league when he is out there. He will be featured at the top of the rotation. It appears that Lodolo will be the singular lefty in the rotation, as Andrew Abbott and Wade Miley will not be ready for Opening Day.
Newly-acquired righty Brady Singer will look to build on his career-best season he had in 2024. The move to bring him in has been applauded by baseball media, and with good reason. He looked sharp in his first Spring Training outing against the Dodgers. Nick Martinez appeared out of the bullpen as a multi-inning option last season, starting games occasionally as well. He pitched well enough down the stretch of the season to earn a Qualifying Offer, which he accepted and is now on a one-year, $21.05 million deal. He will start the season in the rotation and could move back to a flex role in the future.
While it seemed Graham Ashcraft was headed to the bullpen for 2025, it now appears he will have a chance to serve as the 5th starter. With injuries to Abbott, Miley, and rookie/top prospect Rhett Lowder, there will be competition for the final slot. In the event Abbott is ready for Opening Day, we would expect Ashcraft to be in the bullpen if not sent to AAA.
Bullpen (8)
Scott Barlow, Alexis Diaz, Ian Gibaut, Emilio Pagan, Brent Suter, Sam Moll, Taylor Rogers, Tony Santillan
A strong, reliable bullpen is a must for any competitive team, especially one with several young starters in the mix. It is a nice change of pace to feel confident about a group of relievers heading into a season. Alexis Diaz will likely serve as the team's closer. Although he has not been as solid as he was in 2023, his stuff is still remarkable and he has experience in closing out games.
The 2025 bullpen will feature three lefties to begin the year, which is music to a manager's ears. Taylor Rogers may be in the mix for closing games on occasion, depending on matchups and Francona's decisions. The All Star lefty was brought in from San Francisco over the winter, and he provides a quality arm at the back end. The other lefties are Sam Moll and Brent Suter, both returning from last season.
Veteran righty Scott Barlow was signed to a major league deal just before the start of camp. He will bring a career ERA of 3.49 a reliable arm to the Reds bullpen. He will be joined by fellow righties Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan. Santillan looked superb in '24, pitching to the tune of a 3.00 ERA over 29 games. Pagan had injury problems and a penchant for giving up the long ball, but he will look to rebound this year.
The final bullpen spot is up in the air, as there are multiple candidates. Our prediction is that Ian Gibaut will win the spot. He missed all of 2024 with an arm injury, but the Reds have been high on him in the past, and he has a real shot assuming he performs well in Spring. He will need to be added to the 40-man roster, but there will be a spot open assuming Rule 5 pick Cooper Bowman is sent back to the Athletics. If Abbott winds up healthy, it could be Graham Ashcraft taking the spot and converting to a reliever. Other options include Carson Spiers, Josh Staumont, Bryan Shaw, or Zach Maxwell.
Injured List
Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Wade Miley
Let's Go Reds!
With all these names listed, we are officially giving you permission to be excited for the 2025 season! This is the strongest the team has been from top to bottom since probably 2012, and there is no reason to think the Reds cannot compete for the division. With Terry Francona at the helm, the chances are even higher that the team will succeed. Hurry up, Opening Day!
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