The good, the bad, observations, and outlook going forward for the Cincinnati Reds.
Tyler Stephenson and Nick Lodolo pose in the newly unveiled City Connect uniforms. Photo via mlb.com/reds.
Where Do Things Stand?
After the series victory in Miami, the Reds' record stands at 18-22, good for 4th in the NL Central. While this is not great, if you would have told most fans that our favorite team would be only 5 games out of first place on May 15th, we would have accepted that. We believed that if the Reds stumbled out of the gates as they have done a couple of times under David Bell, his job would be on the line. If there is a major drop-off in the near future this could still be the case. However, we are certainly not rooting for this, as there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
The Good
The Bullpen
I am glad to have been wrong about the Reds bullpen, at least thus far into the season. I predicted the bullpen would squander several solid starts by the rotation when in reality, they have bailed out the starters on several occasions. The Reds have a top-10 bullpen in terms of ERA (9th), walks allowed (6th), and strikeouts (4th). This is fantastic. Lucas Sims has shined since his return from injury, and Alexis Diaz has been electric (with a new and improved stadium entrance).
TJ Friedl and Jonathan India
These guys have been playing like All-Stars. Friedl is hitting .306/.351/.468 (AVG/OBP/SLG). He has played solid defense and shown his skills as a dual threat when it comes to power and speed. The guy is a grinder and just fun to watch. Now, if only David Bell would find it in his heart to play the Reds' best sparkplug even against lefty pitchers. His absence will be felt as he serves a stint on the 10-day injured list.
The same can be said for Jonathan India, who was in dire need of a bounce-back year. This was not only for the best of the team, but also to solidify himself in an infield that has several top prospects knocking on the door. He is off to a .299/.391/.442 start, with 8 stolen bases and 15 extra-base hits. A one-two punch of India and Friedl is about as dynamic as it gets.
The Bad
The Offense
Unfortunately, the offensive numbers for the rest of the team are not nearly as sharp. Only 3 teams have hit fewer home runs than the Reds. Now, we know that there is more to hitting than home runs. However, playing in a hitter-friendly park usually keeps the Reds at least around the middle of the pack. The lack of thump has been noticed, as the Reds are 24th in MLB in runs scored. Some wise guy (me) predicted that 10 players would reach 10 home runs this season. That looks unlikely at the moment.
Wil Myers
We hate to single out a player like this, but it feels necessary. It is no secret that the Reds' wallet has been tighter than Dick's hatband as of late. When the team shelled out $7.5 million for the services of Wil Myers, this is not what they had in mind. They had likely hoped for a hot start and some of the desperately needed power, with the possibility of flipping him at the trade deadline in a Brandon Drury-like deal. Myers is riding the Mendoza Line, hitting .200/.257/.314, with only 3 home runs and a whopping 43 strikeouts in 103 ABs. If it is any indication of how severely he is struggling, he is batting 8th tonight in a weak Reds lineup at the hitter's paradise that is Coors Field.
The Rotation
The general feeling before the year was that the top 3 slots in the rotation would be consistently solid, and the next two would be question marks. This has been true, except the top starters have been slightly disappointing. Hunter Greene's ERA is up over 4, and he has averaged under 5 innings per start. This is not what you want from a guy who just signed a large contract extension. Nick Lodolo's ERA has been boosted to 6.29 after being shelled a couple of times. Graham Ashcraft has been the most reliable starter, looking dominant at times. These guys are too talented to not right the ship, and we must remember how young they still are.
The remaining spots in the rotation have yielded many ugly games for our Reds. 6 of these starts came from Luis Cessa, and at some point, it felt that running him out to start was a violation of the 8th Amendment. He just was not starter material, and the team should have seen that. Rookie Levi Stoudt took his lumps in a game where he allowed 8 runs over 7 innings pitched. Connor Overton made the Opening Day rotation but pitched to an 11.45 ERA with 7 walks over 11 innings. Luke Weaver has shown promise in his more recent starts, but his injury history makes a high innings total unlikely.
The Perplexing
We do not know exactly what to make of the Joey Votto situation. We would love to see him come back and be mildly productive as he rides off into the sunset. His status has been unclear, as well as his comments. We know he will not just quit, but we also know he holds himself to quite high standards and will not return until he is ready.
Tyler Stephenson has not looked like himself at the plate. It is still early, and there is plenty of reason to believe he will get back to his normal, which is above-average offense. It is a tad surprising that the Reds are still carrying 3 catchers. We like Luke Maile, but he has only appeared at the plate in 11 of the Reds' 40 games. This does not feel like a great use of a roster spot.
The Luis Cessa situation has to be one of the biggest head-scratchers in recent Reds memory, and that is saying a lot for this organization. You might recall when he came to the Reds from the Yankees in a 2021 trade. At the time, and for parts of 2 seasons, Cessa was a nice weapon out of the 'pen. When the need arose in late 2022, he made some starts and was passable. Come 2023, Cessa was penciled into the rotation, where he struggled mightily. This just felt like a bad idea, but the Reds have a propensity for allowing players to "get what they want" for lack of a better phrase. Again, with the narrowed coffers of the Reds' general management, no reliable veteran starter was brought in to eat innings. Instead of sending Cessa back to relief duty where he belonged, he was strangely designated for assignment and subsequently released. It is unclear if he refused bullpen duty or if the Reds simply felt he would no longer be effective. It just seems strange for the latter to be true since they gave him so many chances. If he felt he deserved to continue in the rotation, he was truly delusional. Adios, Luis.
Outlook
There are a few situations to watch going forward. First, the team is currently utilizing a four-man pitching rotation of Green, Ashcraft, Weaver, and presumably, Brandon Williamson, who was added to the roster this week. Despite a rough start to the season, Williamson will be given a chance to slot in for the injured Nick Lodolo. The bullpen has performed well, and we hope the starters can find some length to preserve the relief corps.
The corner infield situation of Nick Senzel at third and Spencer Steer at first is the best-case scenario for this roster. Senzel has looked natural, even stellar, at third base. He should have never been moved from this position, but we digress. Steer will have some growing pains at first, but he seems to be holding it down so far. What it really comes down to is hitting, and those who find success at the plate will find a spot in the field.
The City Connect jerseys are pretty sweet. The Reds have had the same primary jerseys since 2007, so it is nice to see some variation. For those interested in such things, the Reds will wear their City Connect threads every Friday home game for the remainder of the season, with the first showing this Friday vs. the Yankees.
Finally, the youth movement has finally begun. Infielder Matt McLain was called up prior to Monday's game against the Rockies. He could be denied no longer, putting up dominant numbers at AAA. He will plug into shortstop, where Kevin Newman and Jose Barrero have left much to be desired. The masses will continue to clamor for Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and rightfully so. Still, both started the season injured - and neither has a clear everyday role on the Major League roster if they were to be activated today. It will only be a matter of time until their numbers are called.
These Reds are looking like a team that is only a few players away from competing for the top of the division. Exciting times are on the way - believe it!
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